As sea levels rise and storms intensify, New Jersey faces mounting risks to its homes, communities, and economy. It is estimated that nearly 1.3 million New Jerseyans live in high flood risk Parcels with at least 50% of land area overlapping both the current and projected 100-year floodplain. This analysis focuses on coastal and fluvial flooding. areas; half of those people are lower income Based on HUD’s 2024 definition for New Jersey ($97,800 for a 4-person household). residents who may lack the resources to move out of harm’s way. By 2050, nearly 1 in 6 parcels Defined as the smallest unit of land with a unique boundary used for property tax assessment and mapping. Parcels include both privately owned and publicly owned properties, as recorded in the state’s tax system. statewide will be exposed to high flood risk, threatening $435.9 billion in (today’s) property value and $5.9 billion in annual property tax revenue.

The findings reveal how flood exposure intersects with economic inequality and the risk of displacement due to extreme weather and sea level rise in New Jersey. This parcel-level analysis covers all 3.4 million properties statewide, including residential, commercial, and industrial parcels, to reflect the full scope of New Jersey’s exposure. Each parcel is classified into one of four displacement risk groups, showing who is most likely to relocate, and where they are likely to move, putting further pressure on a constrained real estate market that has a vacancy rate of 0.5% for homeowners and 3.6% for renters (St. Louis Fed, 2024).

This growing divide between who is able to stay in their homes and who may need to move has major implications for land use, infrastructure, insurance, and equity. Addressing it will require bold investment and long-term planning—from buyouts and bond acts to insurance reform and the development of new affordable housing to welcome New Jerseyans who need to move away from high-risk areas.

We can't wait any longer.